Habs return home to face Lightning

Hockey Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having just completed a successful road trip, the Montreal Canadiens will play for the first time at the Bell Centre in nearly a month when the playoff hopefuls host the Tampa Bay Lightning this evening.

Montreal began its post-Olympic break schedule with a four-game trek and went 3-1-0 during the swing, with the lone loss coming to Western Conference front- runner San Jose last Thursday. That surge has moved the Canadiens into seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings, one point better than rival Boston and two back of sixth-seeded Philadelphia.

The Habs concluded the trip with a 4-3 come-from-behind victory at Anaheim on Sunday, with Tomas Plekanec netting the game-winning goal in the fourth round of the shootout.

Montreal trailed 3-1 entering the third period before drawing even on goals by Brian Gionta and Andrei Markov, the latter coming with only 11 seconds remaining in regulation. The Canadiens also had their backs to the wall in the shootout, with Gionta keeping the team alive with a controversial score in the third round.

With Montreal down 1-0 in the deciding phase, Gionta fired a wrist shot in between the blocker pad and stick of Jonas Hiller. The Anaheim netminder drifted backward toward the net and looked to find the puck, inadvertently knocking it into the net for a goal.

The officials held up the goal upon review and after James Wisniewski could not score for the Ducks in the fourth round, Plekanec fired a wrister past Hiller's glove for the clincher.

"I thought Hiller had it," said Ducks defenseman Scott Niedermayer of Gionta's tally. "Then once he goes to relax and thinks the play is over, it drops out."

Montreal will be hoping for some more good fortune as it takes the Bell Centre ice for the first time since a 6-2 loss to Philadelphia on February 13. The Canadiens begin a three-game homestand and will also face Edmonton and Boston on the residency.

Tampa Bay currently sits four points out of a playoff spot and in 11th place in the East, but was able to put an untimely five-game skid to an end with Saturday's 6-2 rout of visiting Atlanta. Steven Stamkos led the way with a pair of goals and an assist to keep his franchise-record point streak intact, while Martin St. Louis scored once and notched a pair of helpers in the much- needed win.

Stamkos' second goal was his 40th of the season, which trails only superstars Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby for tops in the NHL, and the 2008 No. 1 overall draft choice has racked up 29 points (15 goals, 14 assists) over a 16- game tear. Steve Downie, who assisted on Stamkos' first marker of the night, has a point in 10 straight contests and has amassed five goals and eight assists during that span.

Teddy Purcell, acquired by Tampa from Los Angeles at Wednesday's trade deadline, added a goal and an assist in his second game as a member of the Lightning. Goaltender Antero Niittymaki came through with 29 saves to improve to 17-0-0 lifetime against Atlanta.

"I thought it was a good team win out there," said Stamkos. "Nitty was great back there, the defense did a good job of moving the puck up and our forwards were tenacious."

Niittymaki was also sharp in Tampa Bay's most recent encounter with the Canadiens, stopping all 33 shots he faced in a 3-0 triumph at the St. Pete Times Forum on January 27. The Lightning also downed the Habs by a 3-1 count in Montreal back on November 7, giving the team a 2-0-1 record in its last three visits to the Bell Centre.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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